Improved Climate Forecast: Time to Shift Priorities?

In a recent essay published in advance of COP30, the UN climate conference taking place in Brazil this month, philanthropist and investor Bill Gates highlights global progress in reducing projected emissions of greenhouse gases and presses for greater investment in climate adaptation strategies.

Acknowledging that we have blown past the 1.5ºC target and would “fall far short” of other climate goals set by the Paris Agreement, he cites the International Energy Agency’s prediction of world carbon dioxide emissions, which has improved by 40% since 2015. Gates attributes the change to greater market penetration of solar, wind, batteries, and electric vehicles.

Gates’ optimism is supported by the findings of a new report from the Rhodium Group, which states that advances in policy and technology around renewables have cut the worst-case scenario for temperature rise from 7.8ºC to 3.9ºC. The report’s funding was provided by Breakthrough Energy, an investment firm started by Gates to, in his words, accelerate clean energy innovation and deployment.

Use of renewable energy sources, especially solar, has grown substantially since 2015. As of 2023, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that renewables provided 9% of the energy consumed in the country, and World Resources Institute wrote that solar alone supplied 7% of the nation’s electricity in 2024. According to Climate Central, solar has increased almost 8-fold over the last 10 years. And an analysis by consulting firm Deloitte determined that, despite the Trump regime’s reversals of solar- and wind-friendly policies, this year “renewables dominated US capacity growth, accounting for 93% of additions (30.2 gigawatts) through September 2025, with solar and storage making up 83%.”

As for the future, the EIA November 2025 short-term energy outlook reports that growth of renewables will outpace non-renewables through 2026.  Despite Trump rollbacks of tax credits for solar and wind, Deloitte suggests the market continues to favor these energy sources and expects renewables to “advance with agility”. Planned projects are being accelerated to take advantage of tax credits expiring at the end of 2025 and mid-year 2026. While the loss of those credits will increase the cost of new solar and wind projects, the electricity demands of new data centers and rising electricity prices will “reinforce renewable viability.” Already, Deloitte notes, even without tax credits, solar outcompetes natural gas in many regions of the country.

Deloitte’s 5-year outlook for renewables is also optimistic as companies show signs they are adapting to a shifting political and economic landscape. Companies are investing in new domestic manufacturing plants, alternative sources for raw materials, and partnerships that will recycle solar panels and batteries. Most importantly, the essential materials needed for solar panels and batteries can be fully recycled. Lithium, nickel, and cobalt – key raw materials used in rechargeable batteries – can be reused in new batteries indefinitely, and the silicon cells used in solar panels can likewise be used again and again in new panels with proper recycling.

Does all this suggest there’s enough market momentum for renewables that we can deprioritize net-zero targets and eliminate greenhouse gas emissions and decarbonization as our lead metrics in the battle against climate change?

Gates seems to think so, believing people will make the right policies and investments to drive down emissions even more. Instead, he argues, “Our chief goal should be to prevent suffering, particularly for those in the toughest conditions who live in the world’s poorest countries.” In a nutshell: Gates is pushing for greater investment in climate adaptation over net-zero goals, citing a range of projects to improve crop and herd resilience in the agrarian economies that dominate many low-income countries.

Gates’ essay, which argues against doomsday scenarios in which human civilization is decimated, has generated controversy among climate scientists and activists who remain fixed on the net-zero target to mitigate further worsening of climate change impacts. James Hansen, the scientist who first warned about global warming in 1988, issued another warning last month that the Earth is heating much faster than even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) anticipated. This is because (and I quote from climate and finance writer Susan Crawford’s interpretation of Hansen’s presentation) “Earth’s physical systems are much more responsive to small changes in carbon dioxide or sunlight than projections from the IPCC assume.” Consequently, Hansen argues, climate change is happening faster and the effects will be worse than current projections.

Climate journalist Sarah Sax, writing in The Atlantic, points out that Gates’ message echoes what many in the global South have been saying for decades. She writes that representatives from the Association of Small Island States “recognize that net-zero trajectories alone won’t help people survive the next storm or rebuild their home.” As Sax says, rising sea levels will mean the end of civilization for some island states.

It’s difficult to know who to believe, and that is the challenge facing the delegates at COP30. Regardless of any decisions they make, Gates has elevated a vital aspect of their task and the task of anyone seeking to solve complex, interconnected problems – particularly problems of a scope we have never before encountered. Navigating uncharted waters – or futures – demands a recognition of the shifting winds and currents that bring us new information. As we absorb that information, it is critical that we re-evaluate our heading to determine if we need to change direction to get where we want to go.

And sometimes it means reconfirming that we want to get to the same place.